My Covid 19 research
The risk of dying from Covid is less than the flu for our ages.
The number of US Covid deaths per day has curved down from 4928 on 4/16 to 296 on 6/15.
The number of new cases has dropped from 48,529 on 4/20 to 19,530 on 6/15.
In LA, the doubling rate for new cases was every 3 days in April, now it's doubling every 33 days. This is very reassuring.
The first stats below are total numbers based on Covid cases compared to the population of the USA and CA. So since the outbreak in Feb to now, these were your overall chances of dying or being hospitalized. These numbers would be much lower NOW because NEW cases are much lower now that at the peak of the pandemic.
Total Percentage of Hospitalizations
0-4yrs: 0.0006%
5-17yrs: 0.0003%
40-49yr: 0.0009%
0-4 yrs: 0.00001%
5-17yrs: 0.00005%
40-49 yrs: 0.02%
Of these numbers, 95% of them had underlying health conditions.
Total Percentage of Deaths
(with No Health conditions)
0-4yrs: 0.0000005%
5-17yrs: 0.000025%
40-49yrs: 0.001%
USA Total Deaths
0-4yrs: 3
5-14yrs: 17
35-45yrs: 1645
I couldn't find how many of the above deaths were from people with underlying conditions but going by the other studies, the it's around 95%. I did find a study of hospitalized children in the US which showed 83% had underlying conditions.
0-17yrs: 0
35-45: 88 (0.0002%).
35-45 w/no heath conditions: 4(0.00001%)
Total FLU in 2019:
Total Percentage of Hospitalizations
0-4yrs: 0.007%
5-17yrs: 0.006%
17-49yrs: 0.02%
Total Number of Deaths
0-4yrs: 266
5-17yrs: 211
17-49: 2450
Of Currently Infected people(June 15th)
2% are in serious condition(not accounting for age/underlying conditions)
I made this chart to make it easier to compare.
What stood out to me was the number of deaths from flu within our demographic-much higher for flu than covid.
If every single person in the USA had been infected, the % would be higher, however of all known people currently infected, only 2% are in serious condition(not accounting for age or underlying conditions).
If you accounted for underlying conditions it would be 0.001% and even lower if you account for age.
Total US cases known/total deaths in the USA= 5.4% death rate.
Total CA cases/total deaths=3.3% however these numbers are severely inflated because we don't know how many people have actually had Covid. The antibody study done in NYC showed the number of cases were 10 X higher than previously thought meaning this 5.4% could be 0.54% and in CA 0.33% if we knew how many people actually had Covid. If you account for underlying conditions it would be .0005% and even lower if you account for age.
The 2nd set of stats is Relative numbers of Covid cases. So, the number of deaths/hospitalizations compared to the number of cases we KNOW of. If we knew how many people were actually infected, this relative percentage would be much lower. As mentioned, the antibody study done in NYC suggests that the actual case numbers could be 10 X higher, meaning the % of deaths and hospitalizations relative to the number of cases known would be 10 X lower.
I did this research for my family so we could decide how to navigate forward which is why it's age specific. Please challenge or correct me if you think I'm wrong. I did it to improve my knowledge NOT to prove a point. I want the FACTS.